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Bitcoin’s Hashrate Dip: A Historical Precursor to Bullish Momentum

Bitcoin’s Hashrate Dip: A Historical Precursor to Bullish Momentum

Published:
2025-12-30 12:02:54
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In a recent analysis, investment firm VanEck has highlighted a potentially bullish signal emerging from Bitcoin's network fundamentals. In mid-December 2025, the Bitcoin network experienced a notable 4% decline in its total hashrate. This metric, which represents the combined computational power securing the blockchain, is a critical indicator of miner health and network security. According to VanEck's research, such periods of hashrate weakness have historically been contrarian signals, often preceding significant price appreciations for BTC. The analysts point to a pattern observed since 2014, where Bitcoin has consistently delivered stronger returns following phases where the hashrate has dipped. The underlying mechanism is tied to the concept of 'miner capitulation.' This occurs when operational costs—primarily electricity—outpace mining rewards, forcing less efficient miners to power down their equipment or exit the market entirely. This process, while appearing negative on the surface, effectively reduces selling pressure from miners who need to cover costs. As the network difficulty adjusts downward in response to the lower hashrate, the remaining, more efficient miners see their profitability improve. Historically, this cleansing of the ecosystem has created a firmer foundation for the next leg up, as the market stabilizes and the supply-side selling pressure eases. VanEck's perspective frames this not as a sign of network weakness, but as a cyclical reset that has often marked local bottoms and the beginning of new bullish trends. For market participants, this analysis suggests that the current hashrate decline could be interpreted as a sign of underlying strength being built, aligning with long-term historical precedents for Bitcoin's price action.

VanEck: Bitcoin Hashrate Decline Signals Potential Market Upswing

Bitcoin's network hashrate experienced a sharp 4% decline in mid-December, sparking discussions about miner capitulation and its historical correlation with bullish price action. VanEck analysts highlight this trend as a contrarian signal—since 2014, BTC has delivered stronger returns following periods of hashrate weakness.

Miner capitulation, often triggered by rising operational costs, tends to weed out inefficient operators, creating a leaner ecosystem. Historical data shows that 90-day hashrate downturns precede 180-day price rallies, suggesting a potential accumulation opportunity for investors.

Bitcoin Faces Short-Term Bearish Pressure Despite $250K Long-Term Forecast

Bitcoin's market trajectory presents a paradox: immediate bearish signals clash with ambitious long-term projections. The cryptocurrency currently tests $70K support, with technical indicators suggesting potential decline toward $56K. Gravestone doji patterns and on-chain metrics point to heightened volatility ahead.

Yet against this backdrop, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson predicts a $250,000 BTC valuation by 2026. His bullish case rests on three pillars: accelerating institutional adoption, Bitcoin's fixed supply mechanics, and macroeconomic conditions favoring hard assets. 'When the tide of institutional money meets the wall of limited supply, the price discovery will be violent,' Hoskinson remarked.

The market now watches two competing narratives unfold. CryptoQuant analysts declare bitcoin entered a bear phase in early October, while spot ETF flows and macroeconomic tailwinds suggest structural demand remains intact. This divergence sets the stage for a pivotal month in cryptocurrency markets.

Bitcoin's $100,000 Milestone in 2025: A Nominal Triumph, But Inflation-Adjusted Reality Bites

When Bitcoin briefly surpassed $100,000 in 2025, the crypto community erupted in celebration. Screenshots flooded social media, old bullish predictions resurfaced, and the moment was framed as a long-awaited fulfillment of prophecy. Yet the euphoria was tempered when Galaxy's Alex Thorn circulated an inflation-adjusted chart showing Bitcoin never truly crossed the threshold in real terms—peaking at just $99,848 in 2020 dollars.

The revelation underscores a harsh truth: monetary erosion operates invisibly. A dollar in 2025 isn't what it was in 2020, making nominal price targets deceptive benchmarks. This cycle, the gap between headline numbers and purchasing power matters more than traders acknowledge—especially for an asset marketed as 'digital gold.'

Bitcoin Consolidates Near Key Moving Averages Amid Supply Rotation

Bitcoin's price action remains constrained NEAR 4-hour moving averages, reflecting a market in transition. Long-term holders continue to distribute coins at a measured pace, while new investors absorb supply—creating equilibrium without decisive momentum.

The 200 EMA/MA on 4-hour charts acts as a stubborn resistance level, reinforcing the current range-bound pattern. VanEck data reveals this quiet rotation: older coins gradually moving from dormant wallets into active circulation, typical of late-cycle behavior.

December's muted activity contrasts with historical volatility. The 180-day net change metric underscores persistent distribution, suggesting holders remain cautious despite the approaching halving event. Market structure echoes 2019's basing pattern—where accumulation beneath key levels preceded breakout momentum.

Bitcoin Consolidates Below $90K as Market Shows Indecision

Bitcoin's price action has entered a phase of tight consolidation, repeatedly testing but failing to sustain momentum above the $90,000 threshold. The cryptocurrency now trades near $88,000, with narrowing daily ranges signaling market indecision rather than strong accumulation.

Technical analysis reveals $90,000 as a critical resistance zone, coinciding with a high-volume node where previous distribution occurred. 'Until Bitcoin reclaims that zone, the sideways chop will continue,' observes trader TedPillows, noting consistent selling pressure near this level.

The current pattern mirrors historical consolidation phases where directional moves followed periods of compression. Market participants await either a decisive breakout above $90,000 or breakdown below recent support levels to establish the next trend.

Cipher Mining Expands into US Wholesale Power Market with Ohio Data Center Acquisition

Cipher Mining has strategically entered the PJM Interconnection, the largest wholesale electricity market in the United States, through the acquisition of a 195-acre Ohio site. The facility, set to energize by Q4 2027, includes secured capacity from AEP Ohio and is primed for high-performance computing (HPC) hosting. PJM manages over 183,000 megawatts of generation capacity, serving 65 million people across 13 states.

CEO Tyler Page highlighted hyperscalers' soaring demand for large-scale sites, positioning the Ohio acquisition as a gateway to expand Cipher's HPC business and geographical reach. The company's development pipeline now totals 3.4 gigawatts across eight sites, with the Ulysses location optimized for HPC applications through acreage, fiber connectivity, and urban proximity.

The MOVE signals Cipher's pivot from Bitcoin mining toward diversified infrastructure, capitalizing on AI and computing demand surges. This expansion reflects broader industry trends of crypto-mining firms leveraging energy assets for next-generation data needs.

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